We constantly form expectations about the future—are we justified? Stock brokers, climatologists, demographers, school boards, attempt to predict the future. To what extent can we trust their predictions? If the future is less predictable than we imagine how do we plan for it? These questions motivate John and Ken’s discussion with guest Nassim Taled.

约翰和肯以休谟的归纳法问题为讨论框架。休谟认为，相信未来会像过去一样，既没有经验，也没有理由，他对我们预测未来的能力表示怀疑。来宾纳西姆•塔勒布(Nassim Taleb)对未来的不确定性给出了一个稍微复杂一些的观点。他的论文以黑天鹅事件的发生为中心，即基于逻辑信息和统计数据极不可能发生的事件，但具有重大影响，并且可以回溯预测。第一次世界大战、互联网、哈利波特和股市崩盘都是黑天鹅的例子。塔勒布不相信统计学，尽管他拥有应用统计学和数学的高级学位，并做了十多年的股票交易员。他认为，统计数据是用来欺骗我们的工具，让我们以为自己对世界了解得比实际多。塔勒布的兴趣在于我们在统计中的错误心理，或者他所谓的反统计和决策科学。

Taleb’s theory describes two different domains, “Mediocristan” and “Extremistan,” in which our ability to predict the future differs. In “Mediocristan,” exceptions are not consequential. For example, when the height of an exceptionally tall person is averaged into the heights of one million people, it has little impact on the average height. In “Extremistan,” improbable events are highly influential, for example in the stock market. Social and economic variables prevail in “Extremistan” while biological and physical quantities lie in the province of “Mediocristan.” According to Taleb, the difference between these two domains explains why we can predict some things but not others.

The show closes with a discussion of the practicality of living in an “Extremistan” world. Taleb says that the world is becoming less and less predictable as time progresses and the link between action and consequence is becoming less clear. Ken asks why social life makes us live more in “Extremistan”? Returning to Hume, Taleb says humans are naturally good at generalizing in some areas and not others, arguing we are hard-wired for induction, or prediction of the future, in some domains and not others.

• Roving Philosophical Report(Seek to 5:30): Zoe Corneli speaks with Alexander Rose of the Long Now Foundation about his project to build a millennium clock, a clock that will run for ten thousand years. Rose seeks to change how people think about the future and shift our focus to long term problems by creating a device designed to last beyond our lifetimes.

• 60-Second Philosopher(Seek to 49:51): Ian Sholes recounts the story of Nostradamus, the 16th Century French seer who is credited with predicting many future events, including the French Revolution, atom bomb, the death of Princess Diana, and 9/11.