Making Decisions

Sunday, July 25, 2010
First Aired:
Sunday, November 2, 2008

What Is It

When we make decisions we think we're in control, making rational choices. But are we? This is the central question posed by Dan Ariely, Professor of Behavioral Economics at Duke University, in his book可以预见的是非理性的。肯和约翰与这位哲学和迷人的经济学家讨论了非理性及其危险,或许还讨论了非理性的好处。

Listening Notes

John begins the discussion by proclaiming that he is totally rational. Ken is understandably skeptical, and points out that most people are a bit less rational then they think. Their preferences are unstable, they’re bad with risk, and nobody really seems to know a whole lot about why they do what they do. Think about the “sellers and choosers” game. One person has a mug and they get to think up a price for what they’d sell it for. Another person wants that mug, and gets to think up what a fair price would be. It turns out that sellers and choosers don’t agree, and sellers often think it’s worth twice as much.

行为经济学专家Dan Ariely加入了讨论。他讲述了一个他在医院从严重烧伤中恢复的故事。护士们坚持认为撕下绷带的最好方法是直接撕掉,但他不相信。他后来进行了研究,发现最不痛苦的方法,毕竟是慢慢拆除绷带。然而,事实是,快速拆除绷带的过程比护士更可取,因为他们有其他事情要做。

那么,理性的一个好的定义是什么?抛开技术定义不谈,我们可能会满足于此:理性是我们倾向于认为自己在特定情况下的行为方式。当我们的行为方式出乎我们的意料时,我们就是非理性的。那么我们是理性的吗?嗯,大部分情况下,没有。但我们该如何回应呢?我们应该试着变得更理性,还是应该战略性地操纵自己?也许两者都有一点,但我们当然应该意识到,人类的非理性似乎总是一个因素,而非理性是我们最珍视的一些社会规范的基础。

  • Roving Philosophical Report: (seek to 5:44) Zoe Corneli chats with Ori and Rom Brafman, co-authors of the best-selling bookSway: the Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior.Why can’t we be better decision makers? Why do we experience financial losses so much more intensely than financial gains? Why do losses tend to make us feel inadequate, and how do we try to improve our sense of self worth? Does the current economic crisis have anything to do with these issues? Groups can become especially irrational, so it seems best to make sure that dissenting opinions are always heard. Can people make intelligent decisions on the spur of the moment? Well, maybe, but there are definitely times when they shouldn’t.
  • 60 Second Philosopher: (seek to 49:30) How did the stock market get to be as crazy as it is today? A while back, the behavioral finance movement took over, and people started trying to predict and understand irrationality on a large scale. Eventually this gave way to the system of derivations where everyone’s betting on bets about bets, and nobody knows exactly what they’re investing in anymore.

Transcript

Comments(1)


Eddie L's picture

Eddie L

Wednesday, June 2, 2021 -- 8:46 PM

The figures are telling you

The figures are telling you it is over-priced, but everyone else is making money. So is it humble to doubt that you may be wrong, or the theories are wrong or our capability of rational thinking is acutally not yet developed to the stage that it can give answer to this sort of questions. Or should you insist that the theory is right, then every one else is wrong, i.e. arguing with facts. Or is it better to think that theories are constantly evolving, and are alwasy subject to new development, and normally used to explain things after it has happend. So what is rationality and how to make correct decsisions? it seems that you cant, as "being" correct, is like developing a theory, i.e. it cannot be said until after the fact, and in the stock market, where there is no such thing as an expiry date, you could always be wrong until you are right, or vice-versa.