Second-Guessing Ourselves

Sunday, June 11, 2017
First Aired:
Sunday, September 28, 2014

What Is It

We like to think of ourselves as self-aware, reflective beings, but psychological studies demonstrate that we’re usually overconfident in the accuracy of our own beliefs. Memory, for example, can be extremely unreliable, even when we feel certain we know what happened. Surprisingly, when we’re made aware of this, we adjust our level of confidence in ourselves only slightly. How, then, can we doubt ourselves in a rational and efficient manner to bring our beliefs closer to reality? And, just as importantly, how do we prevent ourselves from falling into the other extreme of constant second guessing? John and Ken don't think twice with Sherri Roush from UC Berkeley, author ofTracking Truth: Knowledge, Evidence, and Science.

Listening Notes

节目开始时,约翰和肯辩论,当它是适当的事后猜测自己。约翰谈到了事后批评的周期性,一旦你开始,你就永远不会停止对自己的质疑。Ken指出,事后猜测并非全有或全无;它不需要总是坚持你的信念,但也不需要永远坚持你说过的信念。John问Ken,他是否有一种方法来决定哪些信仰需要事后猜测,并区分事后猜测和重新考虑旧信仰。肯谈到了对自己可靠性的怀疑,以及什么时候怀疑自己是有意义的。约翰怀疑肯是否将优柔寡断描绘成一种认知美德。肯介绍了娜塔莉·琼斯的巡回哲学报告,他认为这将有助于约翰重新考虑他的定位。

John and Ken welcome guest Sherrilynn Roush, Professor of Philosophy at UC Berkeley (now at King’s College London) and author ofTracking Truth: Knowledge, Evidence, and Science.约翰首先问谢琳,她是如何对追踪真相这个话题产生兴趣的。她解释说,她一直很擅长自我反省,但她也意识到,不断的自省并不总是一件积极的事情,所以她想进一步探索这个话题。然后,John要求Sherrilynn定义事后猜测,并解释为什么它可能不是一个坏主意,正如《巡回哲学报告》所建议的那样。我们还讨论了证据的重要性:Sherrilynn谈到了两种不同的证据:一种是我们对世界的信念所基于的证据,另一种是与我们自己和我们的判断有关的证据。因此,一个人是否会事后猜测他或她自己,取决于其中任何一种证据。

John和Ken鼓励观众参与,并讨论了几个问题,包括我们如何更好地评估自己做出良好判断和决定的能力,确认偏误,一个人是否会用尽证据,以及对正确决定和最佳决定的事后猜测之间的区别。

  • Roving Philosophical Report(Seek to 6:25): Philosophy Talk's Reporter Natalie Jones speaks with Derrick Wirtz, Associate Professor at East Carolina University, about the old belief that students should not second-guess themselves when taking an exam. She also speaks with other experts in the test-taking fields; second-guessing, the researchers suggest, might actually be positive and lead to better test results.
  • 60-Second Philosopher(Seek to 46:34): Ian Shoales does all but second-guess himself in his speedy philosophy about the prevalence of second-guessing.

Transcript