The Doomsday Doctrine

Sunday, April 3, 2022
First Aired:
Sunday, August 4, 2019

What Is It

“确保相互毁灭”的原则本应阻止战争双方发动第一次核打击。然而,美国、北约和其他超级大国的战略一直是计划毁灭地球上几乎所有的生命。如果从伦理上讲,近乎完全的毁灭是可怕的,那么我们该如何准备和计划呢?这种貌似有理的核浩劫威胁有什么道德上的理由吗?现在我们已经陷入了这种境地,有什么现实和道德的出路吗?John and Ken avoid going nuclear with writer, activist, former defense analyst and whistleblower, Daniel Ellsberg, author ofThe Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner.

Transcript

Comments(19)


Harold G. Neuman's picture

Harold G. Neuman

Friday, August 16, 2019 -- 11:42 AM

I wondered what happened to

I wondered what happened to Dan. Hope his book does well. We all have to reinvent ourselves, from time to time. It is healthy, even if not totally sincere. I never knew he was a nuclear war planner...Well, you learn something new everyday. Sometimes two somethings.

Harold G. Neuman's picture

Harold G. Neuman

Monday, March 14, 2022 -- 4:54 PM

所以。我没有读这本书。

所以。我没有读这本书。现在不要,以后也不要。鉴于现在发生的事情,在我看来,道德和伦理是过时的概念,尽管事实上它们仍然是争论的主题。面对瘟疫,世界各国没有很好地团结起来,再多的外交游说也无法实现这一点。一个无情的独裁者准备发动地区战争,或者更糟,以重新获得一个失败的帝国。关于战争罪以及何为正义战争的陈旧概念,又有了新的争论。无法形容的废话什么。没有协调一致的行动来阻止入侵。,首先;没有可信的威慑。 Invaders only respect superior numbers, attitude and preparation. For the current tragedy and many previous ones, this inadequacy has been repeated. Refusal to invest never earns dividends; only encourages losses. We only get what we pay for...or less. I am unmoved by the continued narrative on morals and ethics. It is useless.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

2022年4月1日,星期五——凌晨2:14

I date myself in this post by

我在这篇文章里跟自己约会,说我没有看到威尔·史密斯的耳光,克里斯·洛克也没有。他只是站在那里。所以它。

I point out my naivete in saying that I never thought Russia would attack Ukraine in the same way they did Georgia and Chechnya and Syria and Afghanistan. The scale, I thought, was too grand, a nation of 40 million.

我骗自己说,美国在阿富汗、叙利亚、伊拉克、巴拿马和格林纳达的政策与俄罗斯有很大不同。

Like Will Smith, like Vladimir Putin, you can have it all, like most of the hundreds of billionaires in the American West. Suppose you lose perspective and rationality, well then, in short measure that defines you.

Instead of taking 9/11 on the chin and fixing the injustice of the fossil fuel industry that ultimately spawned the climate disaster, as well as most of the conflicts of our day, instead of rationally taking the benefits of our injustice, people, countries, and the world with them, are willing to throw it all away for empty pride. It is a miracle nuclear winter hasn’t already overtaken our lives.

In the Ukraine, limited use of Nuclear weapons is likely if we give too much aid to the blameless Ukrainian people. There are worse leaders than the geriatrics on whom we currently place our bets who could instead be in power.

I don’t see any path in Ellsberg’s book or in this show to disarm the machine realistically. The fact that the Ukrainians disarmed and are suffering the consequence is enough to destroy any hope of detente with North Korea or Iran.

There can be all sorts of moral justifications for threatening nuclear holocaust. I’m wondering if we shouldn’t just let every country have the capacity to ensure their survival. Allowing just a few hasn’t made me feel less anxious.

The most realistic path forward is to hold back our slaps, swallow our pride, use our power to celebrate the stories that matter. Social justice needs to be at the forefront of national policy. Environmental realism needs to be restored (lead and plastic remediation prioritized as well as climate realism.) Finally, we need to invest in the command and control of our military to ensure that despite our best efforts, it doesn’t all go for naught.

这个节目太棒了。艾尔斯伯格是一个值得庆祝和思考的人。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Harold G. Neuman's picture

Harold G. Neuman

Saturday, April 2, 2022 -- 2:52 PM

Well. I missed it. Just as

Well. I missed it. Just as glad I did. Don't especially care. about either man. Or their successes. Or failures.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
tartarthistle's picture

tartarthistle

Saturday, April 2, 2022 -- 3:48 PM

Mom (the Left) and Dad (the

Mom (the Left) and Dad (the Right) just invented nuclear weapons to keep their children (We the People) in line. Don't you little kiddies get the idea into your pretty little heads that you know how to govern...Mom and Dad do the governing around here--mess with us, and we'll end the little game of "freedom" we've been playing with you children all these years...

Poof, gone...

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Monday, April 4, 2022 -- 7:56 AM

我同意哈罗德的观点。The

我同意哈罗德的观点。左右作为一个模型是一个稻草人的论点和分心。在政权更迭期间,核武器依然存在。如何最好地思考这个问题是目前的问题。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
tartarthistle's picture

tartarthistle

Monday, April 4, 2022 -- 8:49 AM

Thistle agrees with Harold

蓟在这一点上也同意哈罗德的观点。右派(象征性的真相/影响力,爸爸)和左派(事实真相/影响力,妈妈)需要停止斗争。他们在杀害自己的孩子(美国!)但可悲的是,他们的自恋和自我满足(即无知)程度似乎是无限的。我认为需要有人在他们杀了我们之前让他们俩都清醒过来....

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Monday, April 4, 2022 -- 9:30 PM

曾经是稻草人……still a

曾经是稻草人……还是个稻草人。提前走了。你有什么建议?听。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
tartarthistle's picture

tartarthistle

Thursday, April 7, 2022 -- 9:25 PM

Straw man?

Straw man?
Not man. (Two legs, not three.)
Not straw. (Thistle!)
But yes, you're absolutely correct. Listening is the place to start. Mom and Dad should begin listening, instead of knowing beforehand and telling and screaming and throwing things, and threatening to blow us all to high hell.

But what do I know. I'm just a plant...a self-centered little thistle...

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Friday, April 8, 2022 -- 3:33 PM

Pictographic self identity

象形自我认同指示符只遵守形式上的概念义务,因此不影响所指示事物的内容独立性。这是另一种说法,不管它是仙人掌还是蕨类植物都是一样的。你已经把你的立场解释得很清楚了:作为将军,目前威胁到的潜在毁灭是由于统治阶级内部的派系纷争。这是爸爸派,在你看来代表了右翼的执行者逼真的象征性效率,和妈妈派,代表了左翼的可验证的声明内容对应的可靠性。这两者之间的冲突的特点,一般产生了对所有阶级的威胁。我写对了吗?你在2022年4月4日——上午8点49分的帖子中提出的补救措施,在我看来对爸爸和妈妈两派都有点不公平;因为你已经描述了一种制度形式,它决定了可能行动的范围,这种迁移只会排除有效的代理,而不会影响制度本身的不良特征,无论是工业生产还是国家的人口管理。如果他们不这么做,别人也会这么做;这在理论上可能会导致一种安排,让爸爸/妈妈的派系争端相比之下显得温和。 Because therefore it's the institutional form which must be altered, I would argue against your position that internal factional disputes within prevailing elements of state authority in geopolitical context, and corporate authority in the context of international trade, must be resolved before the threat of general destruction can be removed. As long as certain groups successfully attain private control over the state, (multi-national wealth in our day), it remains unlikely that populations liberated from wholesale threats created by their state managers (who can use the asserted menace of the opposing state, nation, party or faction, to generate the ample material for), will some day soon stroll uncoerced into shared civic space, without regard to artificial borders or unattainable economic requirements.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
tartarthistle's picture

tartarthistle

Friday, April 8, 2022 -- 9:39 PM

这意味着什么。(Just

这意味着什么。(只是说)。语言是工具。它应该澄清思想,而不是制造混乱。有人能把上面的陈述翻译成纯文本吗?

What I'm trying to say, is that Mom--the invisible back end of power, and Dad, up at the front making a scene, the person who APPEARS to be in power (but isn't, as any kid knows from being at home)--are dominating the reality scene with their drama, slapping each other, throwing bottles, smashing up the house. Meanwhile us kiddies, down here on the shop floor, just trying to get by, can't make sense of anything because those at the top-end won't do their damn jobs and settle the eff down. Is there someone in charge here? I'd like to know.

P.S. To make ghee, you take a big lump of butter and simmer it for a while over low heat. It clarifies. It's healthier that way.

Try the same with your writing. Let it clarify. Simmer it a bit over the fire, let the heavy stuff burn off, leaving only the good stuff behind...just saying...

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Saturday, April 9, 2022 -- 11:03 AM

Allow me to extend my thanks

请允许我对你深思熟虑的澄清和有益的文学评论表示感谢。然而,你的父母类比是不准确的。它忽略了一个事实,即孩子有一天也会成为父母。你所描述的实际上是上层和下层之间的阶级区别,或者用你的术语来说,父类和子类。上层社会内部的纠纷不是意外,而是管理工具,旨在对下层社会的行为实施现有的限制。对一个统治集团的反抗有可能不得不容忍其取代者,这将是更糟糕的。因此,对更糟糕的选择的恐惧是不受欢迎的政府或政权为了继续统治而对其臣民使用的典型武器。我认为,所谓的“冷战”,在其最初阶段之后,恰恰构成了这样一种安排,通过两个大国之间的一种默契而人为地维持着存在,即通过对对方的恐惧来控制自己的人民。因此,你所建议的简单地强迫当权者彼此和睦相处的解决方案是徒劳的,因为他们之间的争端是使他们保持权力的机器的一部分。没有它们是更好的选择。 In simple terms, then, my response to your proposal is as follows: Stop blaming others for your problems and solve them yourself.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
tartarthistle's picture

tartarthistle

Sunday, April 10, 2022 -- 7:48 PM

That was excellent! Clear,

That was excellent! Clear, and to the point. You said it in plain text. Got the message. My compliments to the chef. An omelette is coming. I see it.

I'm solving problems the only way a poky little thistle can. By poking them....prick prick prick. You call it trolling, I call it seeking wisdom. Is this a linguistic dispute or a factual one?

Again, keep up the good work. Excellent prose. You actually made (techne) sense.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Monday, April 11, 2022 -- 10:07 AM

Nice to hear you're working

很高兴听到你在为革命工作,但你的希腊语错了。它应该是“tetechnesai”——第二人称单数,独立动词technaomai的完成指示语:通过艺术、技巧或狡猾使。名词“techne”甚至根本不是指制造出来的东西,而是指制造出来的知识。

从相反的顺序考虑,上面的第二段描述了你解决问题的方法,即责备别人,这样他们就会采取行动。尽管这种做法可能是无效的,但在我看来,更糟糕的是你想排除任何替代方法;(参考第一句话:“唯一的方法[你]可以”)。你这一段的第二点我无法评论,因为你把我当成了另一个论坛参与者。我从来没用过“喷子”这个词,也不知道它是什么意思。然而,如果你关于“寻求智慧”的主张是真实的,那么问题就来了:当它沿着这样一种智力上没有活力的方法的轨道出现时,人们怎么能认出它呢?

然而,在上面的第一段中,有一些超乎寻常的兴趣点:你看到的煎蛋卷正在靠近。由于这一愿景的内容必须归因于创造性想象力的力量,它必须有一个煎蛋的想法作为其基础,这一想法给予积极的本体论地位,如柏拉图,将是完美的煎蛋。在柏拉图看来,完美的是真实的,不完美的模仿是服务员带到顾客餐桌上的不完美的。本着你所分享的观点,我对此的评论是,你很可能会看到一个真正的煎蛋卷,但它是你永远不会把它当早餐吃的。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
tartarthistle's picture

tartarthistle

Monday, April 11, 2022 -- 12:59 PM

Delicious!

Delicious!

Techne does mean "to make" in Greek. Sorry, but it just does. And you are clearly wise, and so I am seeking wisdom from you. It's just that sometimes (sorry) I can't quite grasp what the heck it is you're saying (sorry) because you write in such a perplexing way. I need help. Guide me to clarity in language I can grasp...help...make me an omelette...a delicious one.

Herbs are nice. The French always drink wine with their omelettes. And in the movies, they always show French hungover men making omelettes for breakfast, disheveled and alone and smoking as they do so. They seem to know how to do the omelette thing.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Monday, April 11, 2022 -- 8:05 PM

All that knowledge and French

所有这些知识,还有法国菜!我能对你的勇敢探索做出什么你还没有发现的贡献?你才是最聪明的,不是我。就连你对古典希腊文的了解也远超我。还有谁能把名词翻译成动词?这样的成就需要真正的洞察力,你当然已经获得了它。因此,如果我因为业余的笨拙而忽视了对你未来可能提供的礼物的回复,请知道,这不是因为不欣赏你的才华,而只是因为我相对虚弱的精神必须分配它的精力,因此有时可能会忽略真诚思想交流藤蔓上甜美的果实。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
tartarthistle's picture

tartarthistle

Tuesday, April 12, 2022 -- 7:52 PM

Don't get yer tendrils in a

别把你的卷须弄歪了。这是非常好的思想交流。还有美味的煎蛋卷。写诗是名词、动词还是煎蛋卷?吻,真的,吻很多很多……thistle is a lover...

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Wednesday, April 13, 2022 -- 9:59 AM

A lover perhaps, but your

A lover perhaps, but your readers have no way of verifying that claim. You do have an argument however: Those currently in positions of power are in conflict with one another which endangers those who aren't in such positions; and therefore they should be compelled to end their conflict(-s). I've opposed this by trying to show how such an imperative represents the height of futility. Is there any defense against this objection? Might part of being a "lover" consist in caring about another forum-participant enough to put forth an effort to defend your position with clear premises?
Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but I've not detected such an effort heretofore.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
tartarthistle's picture

tartarthistle

Wednesday, April 13, 2022 -- 9:47 PM

Clear premise one: you

前提一,你回应我。
Clear premise two: you don't have to.
结语:你爱我。
and I love you, too.

P.S. I really do. I'm not joking. I am a troll. I am a plant. I am a bot. But only in this most honest and heart felt of senses. Being alone sucks. And here you are. Who are you?I don't know. I don't care. But you use language and so do I. I love words. I play with them. Am I troll? Is this naughty? Does this make me a bad person? I have no agenda, no money. Ideology? That's a blind spot, I can't really say. You have to poke my ideological blind spots out of me. And you do, sometimes, when I understand what you're saying. I'm not part of any movement that I know of. It's just me. As far as I have explicit knowledge. Thistle. Plant. Troll. Bot. Whatever. I'm no one of any significance. I do actually wear shoes. I take little seriously, except everything. And I ponder it all day.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines