Philosophy Talk and the Paradoxical Facebook Contest
Kenneth Taylor

13 January 2009

So we're approaching 1,000 fans on ourPhilosophy Talk Facebook Pageand we say to ourselves, "We ought to have a contest. Maybe we could give the 1,000th fan and the person, if any, who invited the 1000th fan to become a fan some really cool philosophy related prizes."

一开始听起来是个不错的主意。但在我们考虑了几秒钟后，我们意识到有一个陷阱!Facebook页面公开显示订阅该页面的粉丝数量。这意味着如果我们宣布我们正在举办这样的比赛，任何想要赢得比赛的人都有可能不去注册或邀请好友注册，直到粉丝数达到999。如果每个人都这样想，我们就会陷入严重的麻烦，因为那样就没有人会报名或邀请别人报名了。

Maybe we could get around that perverse incentive by making the prize so valuable that 94 people -- fans 907 - 10000 -- might be incentivized to share the prize. But believe me, we're not likely to come up with a prize such that 1/94 share of it would be of significant value.
Or maybe we could just give out a prize and not announce that we intend to do so. But then, where's the increased incentive for new fans to sign up?
So what are we to do? We want to have a contest. And we want the contest to incentivize more people to sign up on our facebook page as Philosophy Talk fans. And we want to make it known that we are holding such a contest.
So here's the question, how do we run a contest that satisfies al those constraints? We came up with two quick ideas.
第一种是举行一场所有球迷——而不仅仅是第1000个球迷——都有机会获胜的抽奖活动。窍门是，第1000个报名的粉丝会触发抽奖。公告内容是这样的:成为Facebook上《Philosophy Talk》的第1000名粉丝，并触发抽奖，你有1/1000的几率获胜。中国伊朗亚洲杯比赛直播
The obvious problem with that, it seems to me, is that it's not much of an incentive -- unless the prize is really good. Plus something in me says it's not quite fair to the 1000th fan. Shouldn't the triggering get something special, something that nobody else gets? Maybe two chances to everybody else's one, perhaps?
Another thought is that we could do a sort of "surprise exam" type contest. We announce that there is a contest and announce that for some number n, the nth fan will win a bunch of cool prizes, where n is greater than or equal to 1000. But what we don't do is announce what n is in advance.
I think I like that one. But it's probably got some hidden downside too.
无论如何，会有一场比赛。它会被宣布出来，它会激励人们注册。
I'd love to hear your ideas -- serious, tongue in check, whatever -- about how we should do it.

Comments(11)

Guest's picture

Guest

Tuesday, January 13, 2009 -- 4:00 PM

The "surprise exam" idea is cute enough for me to

The "surprise exam" idea is cute enough for me to claim that I was thinking of it before I got to it in reading your post. But is there really any difference between throwing the die beforehand and revealing the winning number n later as opposed to waiting until later to actually make the random choice?

Guest's picture

Guest

Wednesday, January 14, 2009 -- 4:00 PM

How about 2 identical prize packages: One for the

How about 2 identical prize packages: One for the 1000th facebook friend; and the Second for the facebook friend who signs up the most people between now and the time the 1000th person signs up.

Guest's picture

Guest

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 -- 4:00 PM

这场比赛听起来。好的。I just think you shou

这场比赛听起来。好的。我只是认为你应该利用你的广播听众来筛选一个辩论话题的一些立场，并得出一些有用的结论。这些东西可能对政治决策者有用。就拿p·w·辛格(P.W. Singer)的《今天的新鲜空气_Wired for War》这本书来说吧。这个话题真的应该是你的哲学话题之一…中国伊朗亚洲杯比赛直播然后以一种有组织的方式从听众那里得到反馈——也许是在团队中……然后提出一些有用的信息传递给决策者。你有一个电台听众的金矿，但我认为你需要在挖掘过程中更有创造力。
John

Guest's picture

Guest

Sunday, January 25, 2009 -- 4:00 PM

The possibility that people would hold off seems f

The possibility that people would hold off seems far less likely than the possibility that people would collude to hit the mark. With 998 members, for example, a pair of fans (or a fan with a friend) could sign up in quick succession, seizing the prize. The probability of collusion rises with each new member.
One interesting contest rule would be to hold a drawing at 1000, but give those who join earlier better odds.

Guest's picture

Guest

Sunday, January 25, 2009 -- 4:00 PM

In the meantime, I won't join the group because do

In the meantime, I won't join the group because doing so might disqualify me from the prize :).

Guest's picture

Guest

Sunday, January 25, 2009 -- 4:00 PM

I love you guys...for your minds that is. Philos

I love you guys...for your minds that is.
Philosophy talk is the only philosophy class since one on Plato 40 years ago at Flagstaff Arizona. I loved it. The teacher would get so excited you thought he was going to collapse before the end of class. If you were on the air back then and if I didn't need to make a living I would'a been a philosopher like you.
BUT......You're over thinking it! THINK OF YOUR ROOTS. What would Click & Clack do? Actually I would advise that you call them and ask them. I'll bet they would solve your paradox on air!
Richard

Guest's picture

Guest

Sunday, January 25, 2009 -- 4:00 PM

when you finally announce that you're having a con

when you finally announce that you're having a contest, you start counting fans who sign up. you also announce the end date.
each person who signs up between those two dates gets a certain # of votes equal to the total # who signed up minus the position of that person. say you get 1,000,000 people to sign up. the first person would get 1,000,000 chances to win while the last person would get 1.
你可以奖励那些在决定是否参加比赛时注册的玩家，即提供给他们全部的机会。让你看起来很友善。
对于我们这些已经是粉丝的人来说，我们…嗯…从一开始就享受看这出戏的乐趣吗?
当然，有人可以通过编写一个facebook插件来实现这一点，从而获得一些本科学分。
too complicated? how long did it take for us all to learn that office gift exchange mechanism where you can take an opened gift from someone else but then a gift can?t pass to more than 3 people ? depending... but now, we all just mention that squirrely office gift exchange thingy and everyone eagerly shakes their head. you could start "that philosophy talk rewards system" the same way.
or combine these two methods and have three different gifts. you pick three winners in a certain order. the first one picks one of the gifts. the second winner can either take what the first person picked or...
thanks, that was fun!
and you guys are Great!!

N's picture

N

Wednesday, January 28, 2009 -- 4:00 PM

Hi, I am a admirer of philosopy, most of my wri

Hi,
我是一个哲学的崇拜者，我的大部分作品都是基于哲学+动机的结合。喜欢你的风格，很快就会回来多读。
Thanks
N S
http://offbeatspirituality.blogspot.com/

Guest's picture

Guest

Monday, February 16, 2009 -- 4:00 PM

Is it really fair to offer a prize only available

Is it really fair to offer a prize only available to those who sign up after the contest is announced? Surely not. A fair contest will give both new and old fans alike a chance of winning. I humbly is that you hold a contest where the winner the person who suggests the contest idea you eventually use.
Of course, it wouldn't be fair if you announced this contest tomorrow and made the winnings only available to those who come up with ideas *after that*. Think of all the people who have already put in so much effort towards designing a contest! No, the only way to make *this* contest truly fair is to make it retroactive--anyone who has submitted a contest idea since 1/14/2009 should qualify.
And yes, the prize should be something really great.

ann's picture

ann

Saturday, January 9, 2010 -- 4:00 PM

Sorry, but I just don't get why you care so much a

Sorry, but I just don't get why you care so much about Facebook fans. Fine with me for philosophers to have fun, but a contest for Facebook fans? What is fun about that? and if it's not fun, what's the point?