How Do Decisions Ever Get Made?

15 August 2019

Sometimes you will be faced with hard choices: which few classes to take in your very last term in college; whether to accrue debt to pursue a professional degree; whether to have children. These choices can be hard because of agreat number of options, thedifficulty of comparing them, orlimitations on your information. They’re extra painful when stakes are high. It’s pretty amazing that such difficult decisions get made at all.

From one perspective, though, these decisions aren’t special. This perspective makesalldecisions look amazing, even the ‘easy’ ones. This is a wacky consequence of an otherwise intuitive philosophical perspective on decisions. This perspective says that decisions are just verdicts about the balance ofallthe reasons for and against a choice. It makes all decision-making look amazing because there are a mind-boggling number of reasons for and against any decision at all—and it’s really hard to compare them.

这是一个例子。假设你在商店里,决定买两种洗衣粉中的哪一种。相同尺寸的清洁剂A售价9.5美元,清洁剂B售价10美元。所以你有理由买a,因为它更便宜。但是你更喜欢B在衣服上的味道,所以你有理由买B,但是a会让你的床单有点脆。B公司使用了更符合伦理的制造方法。A对环境更好。B的忠诚计划每买十次就会给你一张优惠券。A是你所有朋友都用的洗涤剂。B让你想起了你爷爷的房子。 The list goes on and on.

Every choice you make sits in an intricate web of reasons just like this one. There are an immense number of reasons for and against any choice, and it’s difficult to weigh them against one another. But that’s not to say we take them all into account when deliberating. Doing that would be bonkers. It would require immense amounts of research and time-consuming calculation that we don’t usually do in deliberation.

(Here, notice, I am assumingrealism about objective reasons: there are reasons for and against choices, and these reasons exist whether or not you yourself know about them.)

If we don’t deliberate in this ridiculously complex way, though, whatdo我们该怎么办呢?Usually we don’t try to take into accountevery single支持和反对选择的理由。我们有简单的经验法则,局部技巧和启发式,让我们更快地选择。

For example, you can simply buy the breakfast cereal you enjoy the most (ignoring, for example, the impact on the climate), or you can watch the movie your guest most wants to watch (ignoring the price of renting this movie or another).

Evensophisticated recommendationsabouthow to make difficult decisionsare essentially better heuristics for making choices. Nobody recommends that you look atall你可以的原因。它让人不知所措,效率低下,而且似乎完全没有必要。

But this creates a philosophical problem. We make decisions all the time, but wedon’tmake verdicts on the balance of all the reasons there are. That means that the intuitive theory—the one that says decisions are verdicts on the balance of all the reasons for and against a choice—has to be wrong.

It’s frustrating that this intuitive theory is wrong, because it getsone关键的点。To see why, we need to see that decisions—whatever else they happen to be—are certainlycommitmentsto doing things. When you decide, you close off alternatives, and decline to deliberate any more. When you’ve decided, but you don’t do what you’ve decided, something has gonewrong:要么你不理智,要么你已经迷失了方向。在正常情况下,你决定做什么就做什么。

The intuitive theory, implausible as it is, helps make good sense of these commitments. It makes sense to shut down other options, and end deliberation, if you take yourself to have picked the best option, upon considering the balance ofall the reasons there are.

Now we’ve rejected the intuitive theory, we need another way of explaining the commitment aspect of a decision. If you decide something based on quick and easy heuristics, why does your commitment make sense—even toyou? Why feel the pull of your commitment at all, if you just used this quick and dirty trick to make this choice?

Here’s a tempting answer: you feel the pull because you’d already decided that usingthisheuristic is the way to makethischoice. For instance, you’d already decided that picking the yummiest breakfast cereal is the way to decide on a cereal.

这似乎是对的,但有无限倒退的危险。We can simply ask: how did you decide thatthiswas the way to make this choice? That’s a decision too, and it needs an explanation if the original decision needs an explanation.

Any philosopher must admit that our quick everyday choices—our choices of laundry detergent, breakfast cereal, or movies—count as decisions. But it’s not clear how we evercommit这样的选择。我们也不清楚我们当初是如何以如此快速和简单的方式做出决定的,而忽略了以效率的名义做的这么多事情。我们是如何决定以这种方式做决定的?

Comments(3)


Harold G. Neuman's picture

Harold G. Neuman

Friday, August 16, 2019 -- 11:19 AM

做决定是件苦差事。

做决定是件苦差事。我记得那个关于骆驼是如何形成的笑话,现在我还在笑。有关于创造马的讨论和行动。有人提议召开一个委员会来处理这项任务。故事是这样的,我们就是这样得到骆驼的。决策需要基于最佳结果的合理思考和行动。但是,每个人都想从自己的既得利益中分一杯羹。妥协往往是必须要做的,它保证了有人赢,有人输:这几乎普遍导致了一个不是最好的结果。我们总是可以创造出一只骆驼;要找到一匹马是极其困难的。

Harold G. Neuman's picture

Harold G. Neuman

Friday, August 23, 2019 -- 11:18 AM

Another thought Julian Jaynes

Another thought: Julian Jaynes' book on the origins of consciousness in the breakdown of the BICAMERAL mind talks a lot about the indecisiveness of primitive humans and the notion that they needed 'voices; gods; oracles' and the like to tell them what to do. I took that a bridge further by remarking that early humans were pre-higher order conscious because they were not particularly introspective. Nor sympathetic. Nor compassionate. Added to those deficits, we might note they were also superstitious; ignorant and parochial. We have come a long way, baby. yet we remain hampered by the parochialism of our personal interests. Since there are at least three ways of doing anything: yours; mine; and the right one, it seems futile to assign decision making to groups of two or more. Yet this we do; must do; and probably shall always do, because there is no way to meet the needs of the masses by foisting upon them the will of an individual. Such attempts meet failure on every level and in every system, be it economic; social; religious or what-have-you. We're all 'just trying to get used to it'.

Harold G. Neuman's picture

Harold G. Neuman

Wednesday, August 28, 2019 -- 7:31 AM

Decision-making, when it DOES

Decision-making, when it DOES happen on an individual basis, necessarily requires Leadership acumen. Granted, this is limited in most settings involving political, economic, social and religious considerations. Anyway, for the record, I have penned a small philosophical synopsis on the matter of leadership, applicable I think to many current affairs:

领导力是回顾性的、前瞻性的和内省的。任何被授予(或被委托)这种代理的人必须考虑到以前已经做过的事情;权衡现在可能采取的行动的潜在后果;在实施一项行动之前,要仔细考虑可能的结果。可悲的是,有好的领导者也有坏的,或者更准确地说,有领导的,也有不领导的。从一开始,我们就不能确定我们得到的是什么。也许有更清晰的路径?

It seems to me we are in the midst of a growing deficit: bad decisions far outnumber good ones, on both personal and societal levels. I do not pretend to know why this is so, but the evidences are pretty convincing. One might blame our apparent lack of good judgment, but this begs the further question: when/why/where/how did this human capacity diminish? Well, those are, technically, four questions, I guess. There is much wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth right now---a lot like during previous generations, so, what has truly changed?...more than we can ever know, or less than we think? These questions have no easy or obvious answers---or do they?