是乐观理性吗?

Sunday, July 24, 2022

What Is It

When the odds are against you, believing in yourself can be a source of strength—but it seems to require a cavalier disregard for the evidence. So is optimism a rational way to improve your life, or an irrational kind of wishful thinking? Will hope now just lead to disappointment later? Where should we set our expectations, and where should we teach our children to set theirs? Josh and Ray conquer their hopes and fears with Jennifer Morton from the University of Pennsylvania, author of不迷失方向的上升:上升的道德成本。

Transcript

Transcript

Josh Landy
Should you always look on the bright side?

Ray Briggs
还是更有意义的思考事情是如何出错的?

Josh Landy
相信更美好的未来有助于实现它吗?

Comments(45)


Daniel's picture

Daniel

Friday, June 24, 2022 -- 3:56 PM

What would an essentialist

What would an essentialist account of optimism look like? It would have to demonstrate in what way or ways the optimizer is identical with what one is optimistic about. And identity is usually conceived in two ways: qualitative, which is loose identity on basis of predicate association (obtained by varying degrees of precision), and quantitative, which is strict identity on basis of self-association of the subject. Even if this latter can not be established to the exclusion of alternates, it holds categorically by subjective presupposition for purposes of internal coherence. The essential optimist is by this someone who doesn't fall apart when everything around him/her does. Therefore the essentialist account of optimism is Stoicism in its classical form.

但如上文所述,量的同一性实际上只是质的同一性的最严格的形式,与质的同一性并没有绝对的区别。这就意味着本质主义的观点,在这种情况下,是不正确的。这也就是说,真正的禁欲主义者并不是真正的乐观主义者。相反,这需要一个连贯的叙述,一个人的乐观就是另一个人的悲观。如果是这样的话,它就不能指任何本身是实体性的东西,而必须是从具有实体性的东西中派生出来的。但事实证明,这个“东西”是一个人所乐观的东西,而不是乐观所构成的精神状态。

因此,前后一致的叙述是一个恶性循环。一个人对某事持乐观态度,因为有可能会有更好的事情发生,或者事情没有那么糟糕;这并没有那么糟糕,因为人们对此持乐观态度,所以有可能出现更好的情况。请注意,这只是描述了一种态度或精神状态与其内容和关联的上下文的结合。作为对世界一部分的描述,而不是与之对应,将连贯论者的观点描述为自我实现的预言将是过分热情和不准确的。它是在特定情况下发现的,有各种各样的描述。

It appears, then, that the distinction between optimism and pessimism is a superficial one, referring rather to topical responses to particular states of affairs, and playing no detectable role in their outcome. A better terminology to refer to their objects would therefore be sensibility and irritability, as that would more fully indicate the situation to which one or the other is a response. Sensitivity is associated with information-input, and therefore sufficiency of judgement-relationship to truth-contents; whereas irritability precludes given categories of stimulation, and therefore does not contribute to analysis of more complex levels of experience contents.

事实证明,乐观主义既不能从本质论的角度,也不能从连贯论的角度来解读,而只能从真实的角度来解读。它指的是一种人类学上的近似,在一个全面的背景下被描述为宇宙学知识或宇宙知识,可分为不同的情况,在这些情况下,可以观察到对一个情况的真相的敏感性,和对一个人不想听到的情况的易怒的关系。

Further implied here is that there is no indifference to this distinction, which is formally bi-valent, once the veridical view is assumed. Regardless of the circumstances, one or the other more or less predominates. So how can the present forum-participant express appropriate sensitivity to the relevant state of affairs? Perhaps this would be best expressed by taking note of the fact that participation in the public utility of an intellectual exchange-venue is in principle universal, so that it must be considered a defect where its use lacks a high number of contributors. So can a consideration of the possibility of many future contributors, rather that the current actuality of the paltry few, constitute a true sensitivity to the forum's situation as a public utility, and therefore be not incorrectly describable as "optimistic" in the traditional sense?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Monday, June 27, 2022 -- 1:59 PM

As the question of optimism

As the question of optimism has to do with expectations, it can be posed in the most basic of ways, e.g. as to whether or not the human species will survive another thirty years. As such, optimism is the counter-valence to likelihood of catastrophe-proximity. By emphasizing the practical aspect, optimism is not solely reduceable to the sensibility of epistemic accommodation of corresponding elements, as it was put above, but also what would be classified as irritability by the above distinction: an explicit denial of knowledge-justification in practical decisions under conditions insufficient for continued or sustainable existence. The goal of continued existence overrides confirmation-requirements for grounds of agency. Optimism in its purely practical aspect is therefore a bet that things won't turn out as bad as it looks like they're going to. If nothing is done where nothing can be known, the catastrophe is sure to follow. But if something is done where nothing can be known, it just might do the trick. If it does, you've won the bet. If it doesn't, what have you really lost? This therefore I would describe as the non-superficial view for Optimism, as an axiomatic assumption for a practical operator.

Hence as a practical matter, erosion of human life-sustainability on the earth's crust and an unwieldiness of destructive technical capacity furnish together the sufficient condition for deployment of the Optimism-principle, deemed as practically necessary while underdetermined by sufficient theoretical grounds. What might such a deployment look like? At the risk of false-dichotomy, would we be talking about a new society, or just tinkering with the effects of the old one?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Saturday, July 2, 2022 -- 5:02 PM

Please try not to chime in

请尽量不要同时插话,因为有足够的空间让每个人都能被听到。当然,没有人会用琐碎或无关紧要的声明来攻击这里的讨论参与者,因为这个话题涉及人类的普遍生存,以及受教育阶层是否有能力为潜在的不可能提供适当的补救措施。然而,对于那些认为存在这样一种补救办法,其任何形式的补救办法都足以使被规定使用这种办法的人得到全面的照顾的人来说,这种办法必须显得特别不发达。

首先,应当采取保护措施的形式。从广义的生态意义上说,应该保护地壳的有机健康。因为这不是一种对可以抛弃的东西的偏好,而是对生存标准的约束,意志的基础是不够的,而应该是“权利”,可以说,保持生存,或为下一代做同样的事情。然而,由于人类在生态上并不是孤立的,不仅动物也有这种权利,蔬菜也有。在自我主张这种权利的过程中,如果一个蔬菜可以通过其律师起诉政府或跨国公司,这将不是一个闻所未闻的事件。这一点可能产生的轻蔑的含义必须立即放弃,因为正是通过这样一种植物的自我主张,整个植物群体通常不受保护,可以进入法院系统,因此受到法律的保护。只有通过这样的法律保护,主要的陆地造林区域才能得到保护。(国家是另一个问题,毫无争议的是,一个社会的功能性法律标准与任何国家权力的结构安排来自不同的来源。)

美国宪法第九条修正案应该这样解释,即保护所有不需要写下来的预设权利。因为这是后来被称为人权的法律体系,这棵植物也从它继承了其基本的法律信誉。这里面有什么吗?对于即将发生的陆地灾难的可能性,一个适当的方法的主要部分应该是国际植物性法律的联合主张吗?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Michael A's picture

Michael A

2022年7月7日,星期四——下午2:49

I'm looking forward to this

I'm looking forward to this episode. I haven't thought much about different ways of conceiving optimism. I need more time. But I like the idea of treating it as a bet on the future. To add to the mix, I have long held on to the view that Hope is different than Optimism. I learned this from Cornel West. I want to say I first read about it in American Evasion of Philosophy, but know he's talked about it recently. Can one have hope even while being uncommitted to any expectations about the future? Can one have hope even while expecting matters to worsen? Sometimes I even hope for one outcome, while betting on a different outcome. Thanks for this timely and important topic.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Thursday, July 7, 2022 -- 10:43 PM

It seems to depend on what's

这似乎取决于人们对什么抱有希望或乐观的态度。比如有人说“看起来要下雨了,但我希望不会下雨”。在这里,希望构成了对不良物体感知到的可能性的一种情绪反应,但希望不能影响概率判断的对象。但如果有人说:“我没有看到任何与我的领域相关的工作,但我希望我能找到一份。”在这里,希望可以对关于同一对象的未来概率判断产生建设性的影响,从而相互帮助确定它。在我看来,这种二分法的问题在于,乐观被描述为一种被动的理性评估,而希望是一种主动的情感认同,因此,缺乏前者必然是后者的前提,因此,缺乏乐观似乎只是一种描述希望是一种回应的通用谓词的方式。一个共同的或集体的希望是如何与一个不太可能但又必要的对象联系起来的?讨论集体行动的非理性情感基础,而不是理性的情感基础,是否有意义?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Michael A's picture

Michael A

Friday, July 8, 2022 -- 8:39 AM

Is the problem a distinction

这个问题是希望和乐观之间的区别,还是不考虑其他因素的区别?例如,我认为在毫无根据的希望和有一些(或强或弱)基础的乐观之间有一个有意义的区别。但还有其他因素。是的,有时候希望可能是一种情绪反应。但有时这可能是一种评估性偏好。例如,我希望有一个可持续发展的未来。即使我找不到对人类可持续发展的未来感到乐观的基础,我还是希望它,而这种希望可以是我评估判断的产物,而不是情绪反应。这是针对您的账户吗?还是我误解了?在我看来,在这种情况下,我不会接受霍普不理智的说法。 Indeed, under those conditions, I'd see Optimism as irrational. I suspect there are some cases when hope would be irrational. If nothing else, there can be situations when a majority of people are hopeful about, say, democracy, because they've been taught to prefer it, but they don't understand it well. And, yes, I suspect their irrational hope can make a difference, helping us become more democratic. As a longtime Critical Thinking teacher, I may be biased here; but I'm inclined to treat such irrational cases as vulnerable. When hope (or optimism) is irrational I fear it can make a negative difference as well as a positive difference. For example, if a group doesn't have a clear understanding of democracy, their democratic hopes might, in the end, promote an undemocratic future. I vaguely remember a Star Trek episode that touched on that subject. But, I'd resist the claim that hope always is irrational and emotional. I'd also resist the claim that optimism is passive, though it can take that form. Maybe this is a way to think about it: Hope risks irrationality and Optimism risks passivity.

再次感谢。我在想我需要找到一个方法在我的课堂上讨论这个话题。当我们在古代课堂上讨论斯多葛主义时(即当我们讨论爱比克泰德对期望和命运的描述时),我已经提到了一点。但我认为我的许多学生都在努力解决这些问题,这是可以理解的。用这种方式来结束我的批判性思维课会很有趣。但我主要考虑的是在《哲学导论》中讲述它。Thanks again,

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Monday, July 11, 2022 -- 6:07 PM

Thank you as well, for

Thank you as well, for sharing your pedagogical designs in the second paragraph and by extension inviting participants' suggestions as to ways of addressing the topic in the environment of a classroom or lecture hall, some outlines of which were set out in the first paragraph. The first way, as I'm sure you're aware, is to solicit pupil's topic-foreknowledge, showing aptitude level and imported pre-judgements. The second way is eliminating instructor's exportable bias, conceded on your part in the fourteenth sentence of the first paragraph as an inclination to irrational-case vulnerability, which can be surmised to mean that you're biased against any explanation which employs an thing's irrationality as a premise, which of course would be a serious mistake, even if and especially when irrational explanatory elements are excluded from acceptable conclusiveness, (as thereby permitting a residue of non-excludability). But the third and most important suggestion by my lights is the preclusion of reflexive resistance to the opposition's argument described in the second and third sentences from the end of the first paragraph, as this assuredly stands in the way of adequate paraphrase and must necessarily be excised from transmission and development of logic of argument. In the present case, it might show how the very sense of the word "optimism" implies that it consists of a judgement conditioned by a radical passivity of its subject, so that any description of its object can only be done by an observer who plays no role in determination of the existence of what might or might not be hoped for. Any intelligible contents of such a concept necessarily preclude optional characteristics, so that saying to someone that they should be optimistic is the same as saying that they have no freedom, other than very narrowly defined liberties such as hair color and choice of mainstream periodical. Does that sound about right? Teach yourself first, and the pupil learns by example; or Horace to the other poets: "To move another to sorrow, one must first grieve one's self."

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Tuesday, July 12, 2022 -- 9:28 AM

How might the subject be

如何在哲学导论课上介绍这一主题,正如你一直在思考的那样?是通过强调乐观主义的哲学方面来介绍它呢,还是说哲学研究在某些方面是乐观的呢?你会把它作为一个被研究的主语,还是作为它的谓语?用爱比克泰德的例子,你可能会说他的哲学是一种乐观主义,因为任何值得期待的东西都不可能与任何短暂的物质联系在一起,比如私有财产,他说过一句著名的话,当他的肉体的极限停止时,私有财产就停止了。另一方面,人们可以说爱比克泰德的研究是乐观的,因为他的斯多葛主义最适合当代环境。或者还有第三种选择?一个负责任的教师是不会把如此丰富的果实挂在期待的耳朵前,而不把一些放在餐桌附近的。当然,不能说你的读者对你的回复毫无兴趣。那么到底是哪一种呢,是乐观主义引入哲学,还是将哲学引入乐观主义,还是第三种?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Wednesday, July 20, 2022 -- 1:29 PM

In response to the mention of

In response to the mention of the episode of the television program Star Trek, the distinction between hope and optimism becomes especially pronounced since, if hope is an emotion and optimism a probability-judgement, the Leonard Nimoy character (Dr. Spock) can only be an evidence-based optimist, whereas the William Shatner character (Captain Kirk) could have both characteristics, but arguably only as one sided; to wit, humans can have hope without optimism but not optimism without hope. But if hope is accurately describable in a majority of cases as an evaluative preference, as you suggest, Dr. Spock could also share in the Captain's hopes without exhibiting the non-Vulcan (as Spock's species variety) property of emotional responsiveness. Does that apply to the episode in question, to wit, that if optimism is limited by hope it can't be applied to non-human species?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Friday, July 8, 2022 -- 8:28 PM

So the pair are defined by

So the pair are defined by the opposite of what they're risking, by your account. Optimism should be active and hope should be rational, and when one or the other is undertaken, there's a good chance, that is, a risk, that they won't be. If the claim is of an active principle which can become passive if executant, it is self-contradictory and therefore senseless. But if one considers it as a much weaker claim that it's a mere "way to think about it", as stated above, it's hard to disagree with, even if taking up the suggested way of thinking has already seemed to preclude to it any attribution of logical validity. The problem with expressing the pair as a dichotomy, inquired about at the beginning, is narrowly defined as two sides of the same coin, --that negation of one is affirmation of the other. Your commentary thereupon however covers several different points, and is worth reviewing below:

Your argument, while complex, can be paraphrased in my view as follows:
1) There's a distinction between bases of one's relation to expectations: lacking and not lacking (Second sentence).
2) Hope is both an emotional reaction and an evaluative preference (a preference which is preceded by deliberation).
3) Hope is rational where its preference-contents are evaluated, as in the example of a hope for continued human survival. (Your question here (ninth sentence) about whether this is "speaking to my account" can not be answered, since the use of the preposition "to" is unclear as to whether it applies to an indirect or direct object).
4) Preference contents (--for absent objects, it should be noted, as one can't hope for what one already has) are evaluated, therefore hope is (in more than one but not in all cases) rational.

--This is where by my reading the main argument concludes. The second argument challenges the claim that hope and optimism can work together, by showing how irrational hopes, described as those whose object is not well understood, cause more harm than good. In the provided example of hope for democracy, the evidence of its truth as an inductive claim is irrefutable. This challenge from content-deficient hopes however can certainly be accommodated by content-sufficient hopes, as in the example of those based on vocationally based employment, showing both to be compatible with the original assertion of probability-assessment's unidirectionality with preferred absent-object selectivity.

With regards to the main argument though the question can still be asked: Where does hope-rationality stand with respect to objects of collective hopes for unlikely objects? Might one be limited to aesthetic criteria as grounds for action where not enough scientific grounds can be found?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Friday, July 8, 2022 -- 9:52 PM

The Stanford Encyclopedia of

斯坦福哲学百科全书是一个很好的开始这些展览的地方当我对这个话题不熟悉的时候,这里就是这样。世界杯赛程2022赛程表欧洲区

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/hope/

关于希望,有一个标准的模型、定义和一些当代的观点。希望的本质似乎是不断变化的,气候就是一个很好的例子。尽管如此,它可能太大了,以至于无法定义那些看起来过于熟悉、沉浸在历史之中、依赖于你个人的哲学观点的东西。一个禁欲主义者,一个基督徒,和理查德·罗蒂走进一家酒吧……有很多不同的笑点。

I did pick up Jeniffer Morton's book 'Moving Up without Losing Your Way: The Ethical Costs of Upward Mobility.' This book has little to do with optimism directly, but there has been quite a bit written on it elsewhere. I would say a few critical words about her book, but it would go off-topic here.

正如迈克尔所建议的那样,消除“希望和乐观”的歧义对我来说是一个良好的开端,这将归结为对结果的情感参与。希望意味着在某些(如果不是全部)结果中涉及个人利益。乐观在很大程度上是归纳的,而不一定是前瞻性的,尽管乐观和希望可以有助于一个人的态度。

不管乐观是不是理性,理性就是不总是乐观。关于悲观和非理性的讨论似乎也偏离了轨道,但这只是第一印象。用对立的概念把世界涂成黑与白是很容易的,但问题不是黑与白。是乐观理性吗?- seems grey to me given the many different takes on hope.

应该给孩子们机会,让他们安全地失败,鼓励他们,并给他们相当大的余地,让他们找到自己的态度和道路。这条路越不理性越好。

这里似乎没有多少共同点。希望、绝望、身份、意图、期待、权力,以及善良的旧、新的恶,都必须被消除和理解,才能说出乐观主义是否合理。如果一个人相信外部力量,认同更大的社会运动,或拥有它们在世界上的能动,这种观点将决定乐观主义是否可能。这些力量、运动或机构的有效性将决定乐观主义是否是理性的。由于上述任何一个标准的失败,它都可能是非理性的和乐观的。

Recently Matt Ridley and Hans Rosling wrote books about Rational Optimism and Factfulness. Those words are still prophetic in terms of overall human welfare. We are better off, in human terms, than we used to be. However, human terms are short-lived when attitude drives action and success instead of focusing on the overall impacts of our self-centered projects. In retrospect, I'm not sure just how rational Ridley and Rosling were. The challenge in the future does not call for optimism and rationality so much as realism.

I'm curious about this show as well. I don't have a handle on my attitudes here and less and less elsewhere.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Saturday, July 9, 2022 -- 9:23 AM

So if you hope for a cooler

所以,如果你希望有一个更冷的星球,但期待一个更暖的星球,你是乐观的,现实的,还是充满希望的?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Tuesday, July 12, 2022 -- 6:56 PM

If one has hope, they are

如果一个人有希望,不管他的期望是什么,他都是有希望的。
如果有更坏的预期,他们就不会乐观。
这里的现实主义反映了宏观世界,如果这个人相信科学,这将把这个用例放在现实主义的箱子里。
Realism is challenging to come to terms with and find a common understanding.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Wednesday, July 13, 2022 -- 8:54 PM

Assuming that the discussion

假设的讨论可能的对象在expectation-range实际的主题,你上面提供的部门,希望在于只看可能的对象想要什么不考虑他们是否期望得到他们,乐观是指预期自己期望的可能性之间的关系,但和现实主义是名字的组合,很多希望检查几件事对几对很多事情的期望。很明显,虽然没有说得很清楚,你的答案是这个人是一个充满希望的现实主义者,他并不乐观;换句话说,就是一个嘴上说着大众意愿,却精心挑选数据,说我们应该在尝试之前放弃的人。因此,如果一个人既希望地球变冷,又期待地球变暖,他们就会为煤炭或石油行业工作。这是正确的吗?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Saturday, July 16, 2022 -- 6:20 AM

这是不对的。

这是不对的。

把个人意图归因于在任何行业工作的人是荒谬的。现代工作、我们经济的复杂性以及“真实”世界并不是这样运作的。我们被赋予了从劳动中收获利益的自由,而我们在工作中却远离了目的。大多数人不被允许公平地分享他们的劳动;在自由世界里,工人们分享的利益越来越少,而其他人的行动和生活却被威权统治所支配。即使是在专制政权下,技术也使整体生活水平得以提高,但当这些政权攻击他人的自由或潜力,或者西方政治偏袒富豪统治,损害本国工人和中产阶级追求这些富豪的个人项目时,这并不能带来安慰。

The reality offered workers in authoritarian countries is such that they have lost their ability to determine their intentions. From personal experience, I can attest some Russian employees of Western multinationals were bitter when international operations were closed down due to Russian aggression in Ukraine. Most, in my experience, agreed the invasion was wrong, but they saw their work as a refuge or as separate from the policy of Vladimir Putin. They also lamented their ability to express difference with their government and were frustrated with losing their jobs when they did not influence Putin’s policies.

这与西方工人在碳氢化合物能源部门所面临的情况完全不同。尽管替代能源在创造更清洁的技术方面取得了进展,但石油和煤炭仍具有深远的价值。把普京的政策归咎于俄罗斯工人是错误的。因此,将不良意图归咎于在油气行业工作或寻求工作的人也是错误的。无论对错,这都不能为压制气候科学的西方高管们开罪,也不能为逮捕和谋杀政治对手的普京开罪。

As I said before, climate change is a powerful case for this discussion but also misleading and might obscure some of the subtlety of hope and optimism as both pertain to rationality.

The exclusion of expectation from hope follows directly from your previous post.

“So if you hope for a cooler planet but expect a warmer one, are you being optimistic, realistic, or hopeful?”

The expectation in this post is not required to determine the last trait as having hope is the definition of being hopeful. But even without this setup, expectations are never needed, and sport is full of dashed expectations and last-second comebacks that make this point.

乐观与希望相似,但又不完全相同。态度,命题的或间接的,是核心洞察力。乐观既不需要期望,也不需要可能性,只需要积极的精神努力。甚至不是积极的努力,而是与他人的机会相比,相对的积极。重要的是,欲望、信仰或信仰不是必需的——尽管大多数时候是乐观的。

“真实”的世界包含态度,并由态度驱动。与此同时,为了区别于“真实”,物理的宏观世界不关心任何人类的态度、信仰、欲望或期望。“真实的”和“物理的”这两个世界是不同的,这概括了你对充满希望的现实主义者的看法。现实主义不是一个简单的定义或使用的术语,而是一个应对气候变化的必要术语。但全球变暖并不是唯一可以用来讨论乐观和理性的案例,而且很难区分两者。有许多合理的生活和工作方式会影响气候变化。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Saturday, July 16, 2022 -- 4:10 PM

哪一个?Distribution of

哪一个?分发更多的回收箱?地球平流层和地表范围内的平均温度上升是为了检验乐观主义的概念,因为它不可避免地在一个非边际的确定程度内发生,使唯一的问题是上升多少。因此,全球变暖是检验乐观主义的完美问题,因为它的对象是可以如此精确地测量的,上限是指人类在何种程度上不再可能生存的数字。但是,我们测试的是什么?是乐观者的特性,还是乐观者与其对象的关系?由于前者无法独立验证,所以它一定是一种关系。根据我的阅读,在上面的第七段,你已经提供了一种关于哪种关系的说明:这种关系是一种独立于其对象的明确的因果联系的同一性。来自职业体育的例子是一个很好的例子,它解释了低期望与高希望的相容性,因此乐观主义者的对象被显示为不受其感知概率的限制。正如你所指出的,与希望共享这一特性并不等于它们是同一件事。因为从那里可以推断,作为一个概念,它必须以某种方式包括期望,独立于它的概率,但它可以安全地推测,与它兼容。

这进一步表明,将其称为各种态度是非常正确的,而且没有提供任何信息,因为没有显示出什么类型的对象与之相关。在不利条件下的愉快性格可以是一种对各种不同的物体的主观性格,而不需要指出它们是什么。如上所述,这些都是我们所期待的对象,因此,乐观主义的现象性态度是不能得到庇护的。例如,人们可以把气候变化看作是温度上升到不确定的程度,而不是人类设计的不可影响的情况。相反地,可以在不可改变的预期物体可以被容纳的情况下,例如与小行星的碰撞。但可操作的物体被绝对排除在外,比如,预期湿粘土会是柔韧的,以及定期预期的物体,比如,没有人说他们对明天的太阳升起感到乐观。因此,乐观主义与不变的关系是一种与一个对象的间接关系,它通过与之对应的纯经验计算,并涉及希望和期望的关键属性。但与可改变的事物的关系是一种直接的关系,因为作为计算对象的对象本身,在有意的行为中仍然是可接受的。当这个对象构成人类在陆地上生存的必要条件时,我们就强调了直接关系的相关性,而不是单纯的主观关系,即与一个不可改变的东西相对应的量的关系。既然是客观的,就可以说是理性的; and because it includes hope, i.e. it can't be hopeless, together with expectation, as a low level function with respect to optional behaviors, it fulfills the hope/expectation criteria established by common linguistic usage.

Optimism is therefore a combination of hope and expectation as an attitude or mental state which is related to objects in two ways: as an indirect subjective relation to quantification of an unalterable object of concern or element of such an object, and as a direct objective relation to a quantifiable object of a similarly high degree of concern. This further implies that direct-relation optimism is a highly useful practical concept, whereas indirect-relation optimism is a theoretical concept with limited practical value, other than to reassure. In its practical aspect, then, the climate-change problem can be said to supply an automatic test for direct-relation optimism by its status as a matter of collective concern. Does that sound about right?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Sunday, July 17, 2022 -- 5:48 AM

No your post does not sound

No your post does not sound right, but you are welcome to your view.

Your post sounds bombastic and mulish. This may be an appropriate response to climate change, but it doesn't help delineate optimism and rationality. Maybe all discussion should be about global warming. If that is your point, well done.

There is a disconnect that comes with attitude. It can be irrational and vital at the same time. Charitably that is the case here.

I wish you well with this.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Sunday, July 17, 2022 -- 11:37 AM

What do you think though of

你怎么看待我对直接关系乐观主义和间接关系乐观主义的区分?与计划申请相比,当谈论有利的处置时,它不是澄清了很多歧义吗?使用气候变化的例子是因为它可以用温度计来测量,因此乐观程度可以很容易地量化。但是,人们可以考虑其他共同关心的问题,例如在一系列核爆炸之后人类文明的潜在终结。也许这是一个更简单的例子,因为它涉及大爆炸,而不是缓慢烘烤。在这种情况下,乐观主义的概念如何应用?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Saturday, July 23, 2022 -- 4:38 AM

To say there are two types of

To say there are two types of optimism, one powerless and the other practical, seems not quite right and creates more ambiguity. As I said above, I'm not well read on optimism and hope, but your indirect and direct terms match the distinction full stop. When one is optimistic that something will happen – they are, philosophically, expressing hope. When one hopes without an expectation – they are, philosophically, expressing optimism. Modern usage is confused on this.

Making this distinction between indirect and direct relation optimism is the same as distinguishing disposition and requisition. If optimism can separate from an object that one is optimistic about, optimism is separate, again, full stop. If that makes optimism less practical or valuable, then that might be useful.

然而,乐观在大多数情况下是实用的、有用的和必要的。气候变化是一个用例,但这需要限定条件,其他人已经做到了。不幸的是,大多数人相信那些混淆真实的网络。理解什么是真实的,我们与现实的关系,以及真相的本质,是决定乐观主义是否合理的基础。如果说有什么区别的话,那就是它是灰色的,而不是黑白的。

If we aren't successful, it won't be because of our lack of optimism. To breathe is an optimistic choice; instead, it will be due to a failure to see the world for what it is. I'm not gloomy, and discussing climate change or post-nuclear worlds is not helpful.

最简单的普遍情况可能是养育子女。二者的客体关系是规范的、深刻的。希望是至关重要的,乐观是唯一值得传给下一代并迎接新的一天的态度。不幸的是,我们不能抹杀历史,但我们可以居住在未来的废墟中。要理解乐观主义的本质,我们应该思考我们最亲密的互动,我们可以从那里建立起希望。

你已经在这里发布了近20次,并且正在以不同的方式思考这个问题。在这一点上,我更倾向于听节目并思考它会带来什么。我希望对这个问题以及你的其他见解会有更好的答案。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Saturday, July 23, 2022 -- 7:55 PM

And this hope of yours, the

而你的这种希望,也就是寻求更好答案的那种希望,要么与乐观主义联系在一起,给出一个好的理由,要么没有乐观主义的陪伴,就像没有好的理由一样。一般来说,乐观主义被定义为任何希望都有一个很好的理由,即使没有它也可能发生。因此,一个人能否对乐观主义是否理性的问题的答案保持乐观的问题本身就是一个被问及的问题的例子,因此也就引出了这个问题。由于被动和主动形式之间的区别,作为对不受欢迎的方法的评估(性格上)和作为对受欢迎的方法的准备(需求上)的乐观主义之间的区别,没有提供关于其合理性或不合理性的信息,因此寻求一个更基本的基础,以了解每一种方式如何与被确定为希望内容的对象相关。在这里,养育子女的例子(上面的第5段)作为一种积极的多样性的案例提供了丰富的信息,在这种情况下,不管对证据的考虑,最好的可能的结果都被假定为可能的,而这种假设使这种结果更有可能出现,它本身成为证据池的一部分,通过这种证据池可以评估其可能性。从宏观上讲,正如你在这段话的第三句中想要做的那样,事件作为时间内容的概念可以被描述为一种类似于主动/被动的二分法。因为正如你所说,过去的行为无法挽回,由过去决定的未来事件也无法挽回。然而,这里的问题是,已经发生的事件和尚未发生的事件之间所谓不可改变的关系,同样没有得到证明这种判断的证据的充分确定。因为只有一般的结构可以被知道,过去和未来可以说是相同的认识论术语。因此,乐观主义被正确地描述为积极意义上的理性,因为它与养育子女的案例类似,在这种情况下,解释已知的过去事件,以确定尚未发生的事情,结果是一种存在主义的赌博,最好的结果是可能的,不管反对他们的证据,只要这个证据不是无可争议的决定性的(在被动的情况下)。 Is this reading in conformity with your deployment of the example?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Sunday, July 24, 2022 -- 2:11 PM

Jennifer Morton did not

Jennifer Morton did not clarify much here. She was overtly deferential if not evasive. I would look elsewhere.

Ray rightly points to identity.

肯花的机会。约翰有洞察力。我没有听到詹妮弗就乐观主义是什么或它的合理性发表立场。没关系,但我更喜欢从学者那里冒点险。

Hope and optimism are confused in the folk. Philosophy can clarify and help here, beyond punctuating neo-liberal trope. That did not happen here, and I'm not sure why.

这里有三个关于乐观和希望的育儿用例我很感兴趣;圣诞老人、《闲话》和审查制度。莫顿把她所有的重量放在了第二秒。这是不理性的。

Why so many posts on this one Daniel? You are using different terms each time. I like approachlets and would take that further, but I'm not sure you are building here or using scattershot.

希望被时间之箭所偏差。乐观不是。接近或永恒的统一,乐观是生命,而希望是偏见。

吸气乐观。
Breathe out hope.

I can't help you Daniel, but I have hope you will find it or answer it yourself.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Tuesday, July 26, 2022 -- 6:26 PM

Is it possible that you are

Is it possible that you are unaware of the immensity and irreplaceability of the help you have been to me already? Have I been so callously unequal to the requisite level of illustration of received value that the source from which it has been issued overlooks it amidst the much greater cornucopia of concepts constituting its environs? Betokened would it be for me to recoil in horror from such an eventuality and to dip the sputtering pen no more into the darkening well of wasted ink, should I not humbly and in concession offer in recompense a display of my fundamental lack of concurrence with any claim of helpfulness-lacuna.

父母的例子是提供乐观的关键作为各种照顾的范例。因为它表明,从世界杯赛程2022赛程表欧洲区照顾者到被照顾者的因果传递顺序与之前和之后,或更早和更晚的时间顺序是不一致的。这样做的原因是,关于被关心的对象可能拥有或不拥有哪些属性的不可逆的因果决定的证据是无关紧要的,因此与关心本身是不相容的,因为后面的这种描绘是基于对可选属性的无穷无尽的预设,这些预设是独立于前提条件而保持可能的。作为对一个显然不太可能的希望对象的有利概率判断的理性乐观主义,虽然不是不准确的,但一旦育儿范例被用作照顾的范例,那么照顾和被照顾对象之间的因果传递顺序就不属于时间顺序的描述,而是采取一种对不可逆的预先决定下注获得最佳结果的形式,过去和将来的元素都可以根据赌注的结果进行调整。因此,乐观主义的吸入剂与希望作为二氧化碳的呼出剂配对是不够的,因为它必须假定因果传播的不可逆顺序。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Thursday, July 28, 2022 -- 7:20 AM

Morton may not offer personal

莫顿可能不会提供个人见解,但她博览群书。相对于乐观主义的合理性,你和我可能一点也不会达成协议或改变我们的观点,但至少让我们同意听节目和嘉宾,并找到共同点。

你知道你的曾曾祖父母吗?

I don't. It is doubtful you do, or anyone does. We don't celebrate our ancestors as the ancients did, and most people don't know where or if their great-great-grandparents are buried.

我对我的曾曾祖父母抱着积极的态度,通过第一次呼吸和支付我的抵押贷款。相对于时间之箭,我要说的就是这种逆来顺受的乐观。在没有认真理解詹妮弗所说的话之前,不要在这里开始谈论育儿问题。

新自由主义不是在赌什么。它是有生命的,是用我们所拥有的东西做到最好的。这些物体的本质因为我们的粗暴接触而改变,但因果关系从来都不是问题。构建的思想和物体可以远远超越自然。人类创造了让他们的生活更容易的东西。从长远来看,只要自然允许,这将对我们更好。我们现在正在测试这一极限。

大约一百年前,我们与氮有过类似的磨合。我们需要一个弗里茨·哈伯来解决碳问题。它将会发生;我们已经通过了单靠呼吸控制过量的临界点。

我也不会因为我的呼吸短促而走得太远。我所做的只是在希望和乐观之间区分客观和主观。呼出的大部分是氮气;每次呼吸中只有二十分之一的氧气被交换。这不是一个进/出二分法。寻找对称性是很有力量的,但在这种情况下,如果做得太过火,就不准确了。但是,关于呼吸和思考一个人与我们周围环境的关系,有一些非常深刻的东西。我不想在这里失去乐观的想法和对未来的希望,即使有一些事实。乐观不需要对象。希望如此。

你在夸夸其谈。让我们关注莫顿说的话,或者继续。判决很快就会结束。

What do you think of Morton talking about the cancer patient? That is a well-discussed thought experiment concerning optimism and hope.

这个节目对气候变化的关注远远超过了需要。那詹妮弗对气候的评论呢?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Thursday, July 28, 2022 -- 11:05 AM

With respect to the broadcast

With respect to the broadcast in question, direct commentary is reserved until it is aired in my area, as listening by radio is preferred. Previous comments on Morton are based on her forthcoming article respectively noted below, which outlines a very narrow range for optimistic associations, namely, those for which optional characteristics, such as compulsion of post graduate student debt, have to be left out, making an epistemic model most optimal, where rational optimism is constrained by the boundary beyond which disagreement with majority objections is unreasonable; whereas the Stoical model, as the one where initial conditions can be altered in abeyance of relevant satisfaction of individual goals, is mentioned by Morton but left out of contention.

育儿案例的基本依据是假定与最佳对象一致。为了澄清这个例子的重要性,我把它类比地描述为语法的范例(也就是说,如果你愿意的话,其他所有的例子都是父母乐观主义的“变化”),我想提出亚里士多德《诗学》中关于怜悯和恐惧的讨论。就戏剧的类型而言,恐惧是通过观察潜在的伤害而产生的,这种伤害接近一个可识别的角色,比如,一个国王,他令人钦佩的特点是通过认识到某些人性化的缺陷而缓和的,因为潜在的伤害被自发地理解为可能发生在观察者身上的那种伤害。另一方面,怜悯是由于发生在别人身上的事情。当一个人看到可能发生或已经发生在另一个人身上的伤害时,他会感到怜悯,排除了同样的伤害可能发生在自己身上的必然性。例如,一个父母可能会担心,她/他的上大学的孩子可能无法赚到足够的钱来偿还大学贷款,因为他/她之前已经负债了,或者将来也可能负债,但他/她不会同情孩子,因为他/她仍然认同他/她。落在后者身上的伤害,也要由前者分担。

在这里,乐观主义被描述为一个复杂的概念,建立在经验和非经验元素的基础上,基于源自经验的差异和独立于经验的身份。也就是说,希望被描述为欲望与相对不可能的对象的结合,而同一性被描述为与它的对象的无条件的联系,与它的可能性或不可能性无关。我在这里的论点是,这使得任何关于乐观主义的讨论,比如气候变化,父母对孩子乐观主义的变体,只要对结果的认同不受其认知准确性或潜在的经验矛盾的限制。此外,你声称乐观主义不需要与之对应的对象,这一点我也听不懂,因为像“事情会变得更好”这样的陈述所表明的一般特征无疑包含着客观的断言。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Thursday, July 28, 2022 -- 7:31 PM

I re-listened to the show,

我重新听了一遍节目,莫顿说的比我最初认为的要多。如果你感动了,请告诉我。她同意你关于乐观主义的观点,但也提到了乐观主义作为一种性格特征的心理地位,缺乏对象、欲望和期望。如果没有完全执行,现在提供的文字记录是非常有帮助的。机器学习仍然有其局限性。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Friday, July 29, 2022 -- 1:37 PM

See my 7/29/22 post below.

See my 7/29/22 post below.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Sunday, July 10, 2022 -- 9:04 PM

The same question could be

同样的问题可以以一种“是或否”的方式提出:对一个比理想的行星环境更温暖的期望是现实的,同时又想要一个反事实的更冷的环境,就一个人对所关心的事情的潜在后果的理解而言,如果不是反事实本身的实现,那么他是否可以对达到一种与其动机基础相符的情况持乐观态度?The translation of multiple choice into a yes-or-no however has the cost of having to beg two of the original questions:
1) Realism is defined by expectation-probability; and
2) hopefulness is defined by a relationship to expectation-realism with regards to cared-for objects.

那么,抛开什么是真实和什么是可能的问题,我们可以问:什么是乐观?这必须要么是它们之间的一种关系,表现为可能与现实之间的相互帮助,要么是它们以某种方式包含在其中的第三个对象,被理解为尽管有期望,但仍能实现的期望对象——在这种情况下,一个稍微冷一点的星球,或至少不太温暖的星球。根据我的阅读,在上面的第五段中,你已经指出了这个问题肯定答案的基础,在这段中,一个过程的结果的利害关系告诉了希望的概念,而乐观主义就像穿着更现实的衣服一样。如果我们继续这个类比,我们可以说希望是赤裸裸的乐观主义,而乐观主义是披着现实主义外衣的,这反过来又会使现实主义成为没有希望的睡衣。然而,这是一个严肃的问题,它指出了对人类集体关切的非漠不关心,“乐观”一词是全面使用的。它的主要指称功能并不是告知对象的确定,而是反映了主体对维持或促进对象的事物的取向。因此,乐观有点像爱情,因为优化器会跳出自身去寻找对象,而不会试图把它从它所在的地方带出来。因此,在回答什么是乐观的问题时,我们可以说“对共同未来的真正关心”。But the answer to the original question might not be so simple, and therefore your reply on this important matter is cordially encouraged:

Being realistic about what can be hoped for regarding a changing planetary climate, can one be optimistic about it?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Wednesday, July 13, 2022 -- 9:24 PM

Because it can be safely

Because it can be safely assumed that a substantial measure of anticipatory forecast accompanies broadcast expectations with regards to the program-topic under discussion, it could be said that sufficient conditions have been set up, once key terms are defined, to conduct an experiment in the phenomenon of Optimism which holds the promise of determining whether it makes sense to talk about it as a human reality which produces verifiable results, or is just a manner of speaking and has no bearing on potential effects of collaborative work and constructive behaviors. In limiting the conditions for result-verification to the least possible number, it is useful to limit the question asked to one between two incompatible views. If one assumes conditions of impending approach of undesirable objects, Optimism is either comfort or axiom, and does not indicate a capacity for determining the probability of existence of hoped-for objects. The question should rather be limited to a relation of the subject to the reference-content, to determine whether it is based on comfort as space for reflection, or on axiom as time for concentrated activity. As the design is to determine whether its truest existence or best reference is one or the other, the notion of rationality is not necessary.

Twice above have participants expressed anticipation of the broadcast outcome, and these can be seen as expressions which contain elements and ingredients of what is called optimism. The question regarding these and other such expressions is whether they are based on comfort or on axiom. And this can be determined by experiment, which in this case is where each portion of participatory activity constituting what is called a "post" constitutes a contribution to a quantification of the result. On some specified date near the broadcast they can be tallied up so that a majority is determined, and by extension whether it is a strong or weak majority. This can then be checked against the eventual broadcast's contents, to see if the majority view appears. Only in the case of it both doing so and being the tallied majority can one say, with reliability confirmed by experiment, that it's the case.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Wednesday, July 13, 2022 -- 11:33 AM

Optimism has to do with

Optimism has to do with desired objects in future time. And one can be disposed towards the future in at least two distinct ways: anticipating it by active preparation, or awaiting it in passive inaction. As such, optimism has to be about something important. Its use in language indicates that it's always a matter of collective or generic import, and subsequently reflects the social conditions of its relevant context. I've argued above that optimism is a passive relation to an awaited object in future time. Hence it constitutes a comfort-concept with respect to relevant conditions of social control, and expresses confidence in their arrangement with regards to the respective desired object. That's one vote for optimism's predication by sociological comfort in reassurance of other's efforts besides one's own. Are there plausible alternates for optimism which assert an axiomatic characteristic actively anticipating its object?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Friday, July 15, 2022 -- 8:51 PM

Let's say that because

Was Caesar optimistic about victory over Pompey before crossing the Rubicon? If so, he was confident, and this confidence acted as an axiom for his decision. But if he was not confident about future victory, but nevertheless crossed, this indicates that he really didn't want to, and his generals (or centurions) had to give him a push, being themselves optimistic about high positions in a Caesarian government. So can optimism be described, as this example suggests, as an epiphenomenon of historical events where to whom it belongs remains hidden? Was Plato for example optimistic about his Syracuse adventure or was it Tyrant Dionysius's optimism about learning mathematics that was the key inspiration to Plato's excursion? And if this arose from confidence in the truth of Plato's theories, was it on the part of both participants, or just one? On the occasion of Heidegger's 80'th birthday Arendt describes his support for German fascism in its early years in a similar way, so that optimism equates to apologetics. Here optimism is just a way to express a positive valence for an imposed adverse situation, and as such is a classical tool of repression. There's a line in a song from the 1980's that runs "I'm proud to be an American, where at least I know I'm free". The second clause is the optimistic one, expressed in epistemic terms. It takes the form of finding something good in a bad situation, expressed as willful ignorance of the given non-optimistic.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Tuesday, July 19, 2022 -- 10:45 PM

In the forthcoming article

In the forthcoming article "Resisting Pessimism Traps; The Limits of Believing in One's Self" in the journal Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, Professor Morton describes a pessimism phenomenon which in aggregate constitutes a set of aspiration-hobbling snares called "pessimism traps", whose evidence-confirmation mechanism is defective because the countervailing decision, the optimistic one, involving greater risk but more comprehensive achievement, can't be tested. In consequence, uncritical presuppositions are automatically imported into post-decision evaluation as having been confirmed, since the lesser goal is nevertheless a valuable one.

通过阅读这篇文章,我总结出了四种避免这些陷阱的方法:一种是无条件的,即目标的确定不依赖于潜在成功的证据;社会责任:社会责任,源于对处于类似不利处境的其他人的义务;一种认识论,风险的可接受性仅被排除在与其不可接受性的分歧超出不合理的边界之外;以及斯多葛主义的方式,在这种方式中,目的论的考虑被无限期地搁置起来,以促进条件-全体性的接受。

While not getting into Morton's conclusion, it seems to me that of the four, only the Stoical way allows itself to tinker with a goal's decision-preconditions as a way of avoiding the trap of the choice of a lesser goal without sufficient evidence for rejecting the greater. For this the example of college application may be useful. Insofar as this can involve the risk of post-graduate default on loans taken out to cover the cost of what is called "tuition", the unconditionalist is either confident in the abstract that it can be repaid or doesn't care about defaulting, the sociologicalist will strive to repay it on behalf of the example it sets for others, the epistemicist can calculate repayment-likelihood by determining that it's not unreasonable to disagree with the chorus of advisories saying that it's unlikely, but only the Stoic can suspend the goal without abandoning it until that one condition is removed, so that associated risks no longer factor into any decision to pursue such a goal, and economic disadvantage as a factor in the trap to be avoided is precluded. The goal is the same, and only its acceptability under certain conditions has changed. Collective interest is appealed to prior to the individual's interest and related topical aspirations. A strike in discussions of collective labor action employs similar reasoning, where the goal of changing conditions in the workplace overrides individual interests for short-term compensation. The stoic approach could then be renamed the collectivist approach, so that pessimism-trap avoidance is assisted by the elimination of economic conditions for their occurrence. If a scenario is considered where many enrolled college-level students could take up a stoical attitude about graduation dates, the example could be carried a little further to ask: does the most rational optimism for avoiding the pessimism trap of assuming failure of student-loan repayment most readily take the form of a student strike against the sale of accredited education, i.e. tuition?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Harold G. Neuman's picture

Harold G. Neuman

Tuesday, July 26, 2022 -- 3:16 PM

I will try again: there are

I will try again: there are those now saying consciousness is illusion. Others claim rationality meets that description. Optimism? Well, if optimism is also an illusion, then, hope; love; aspiration; and therefore beliefs, in themselves, are illusions. Did Davidson intend to say this when he called such things propositional attidudes? I don't think so. Nor do I think he might have imagined them to be re-interpreted in that frame. Some forms of truth and reality are time-sensitive. Many others are not.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Friday, July 29, 2022 -- 9:42 AM

Welcome back, Harold.

Welcome back, Harold.

戴维森的命题态度和弗雷格的悖论在这里都是相关的,其他人也讨论过,包括约翰·佩里和肯·泰勒在他们的哲学演讲之外的工作中。中国伊朗亚洲杯比赛直播我不认为戴维森有节目或讨论。在戴维森看来,命题态度有,但不是特别有。正如你所说,你已经评论过了。在您的指导下,我花了一些时间阅读这篇文章,并继续学习。

意识是一种幻觉的观点与戴维森关于命题态度的思想是分开的,他没有做到这一点,但我们可以。

错觉不同于错误的信念,一个人可以生活在错觉下,仍然拥有真实的信念,尽管它的价值会明显降低。在这一点上,意识是一种幻觉的观点优先于乐观主义是否理性的问题。

I'm reasonably impressed with the mysterious ability of consciousness to pierce illusions and determine de re reality, and de dicto reality even. Extreme cases are the standard model of physics and set theory.

If reality is not an illusion, optimism can be rational and irrational, as Morton states, depending on the de re state from which it is expressed. Don't jump off buildings thinking you can fly. Support worthy projects that need support to succeed.

If reality is an illusion, this doesn't change much except, perhaps, everything. But that doesn't further any project in the end.

个人身份是虚幻的,就像雷在剧中密友一样。如果我们戳穿了这个想法,我们就可以对社会项目更加乐观,因为社会项目是保护我们的现实的核心。

不管克拉克·肯特是超人,露易丝认为是这样的,或者如果超人的特质真的存在,乐观也是理性的。

Daniel gets at some of the time sensitivity below. Thanks for this post. Propositional attitude and time are fundamental to one's view, which is no illusion, even if both attitude and time are.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Thursday, July 28, 2022 -- 2:48 PM

Reply to participant Neuman's

Reply to participant Neuman's analysis of time-sensitivity and illusion in the 7/26/22-post above: The claim is that some truths are time-sensitive, such as whether or not person x is optimistic about situation y at time t, and some are not, such as the truth that two beans added to two pebbles amount to four items. But does the former apply to time with regards to what's sensed, or to change? If person x is optimistic about situation y at time t but not about situation y at time t' , the optimism becomes of the past but the situation has not changed. But if person x is no longer optimistic about situation y' at time t', the situation has changed, so that the duration of situation y is an illusion, but not the optimism, which disappears accordingly as the situation becomes a new situation. Time sensitivity is by this described, then, as a measure of situation-duration, or a change-barometer which therefore could be with good reason called a "temporometer". Mathematical truths do not show up on the temporometer, indicating no change for the duration of the measure. But a truth such as "the planet is getting warmer" would by contrast show a high measure of change, altered as it is with further conditions which can be identified. So is participant Neuman here suggesting that optimism and the other qualities associated with human consciousness can be determined with respect to their ontological status by the mere application of a well constructed temporometer?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Friday, July 29, 2022 -- 1:41 PM

The discussion ranged over

The discussion ranged over three areas: psychological, rational, and collective. Study of optimism as a psychological property of a person is paired with pessimism, for which evidence can be gathered as to the causes of each, e.g. a particular kind of upbringing, et al. Falling outside of emphasis on predication of the subject however is the question of whether one set of objects is appropriate or not.

我认为乐观主义的哲学研究可以解释这些领域是否存在的问题,Morton提供了两个案例供我们思考:一个是关于终末医疗诊断案例的理性选择模型,另一个是关于气候变化案例中基于对悲观抵抗的集体应对必要性的集体行动模型。第一个例子表明,乐观世界杯赛程2022赛程表欧洲区主义是如何破坏理性选择的,在理性选择中,忽视让自己的效果井然有序的做法,是由于对结果抱有积极的希望,这种希望如此不可能以至于不合理,是由于对自己的生理持续时间的偏见,而不是对他人的担忧和自己死后的受欢迎程度。不管观察到的心理特性如何,最终诊断的案例提供了一个例子,说明乐观主义是建立在错误对象的基础上的非理性。

另一方面,在气候变化的案例中,莫顿为乐观主义的合理性提供了一个例子,即拥有正确的对象,但错误的对象无法实现。I read her argument in two parts:
1) In cases where collective action is assumed as necessary, justified judgements of probability are precluded to individuals, since only in concert can such judgements be supplied with sufficient evidence. The rational object determines the conditions for the judging subject by excluding individuals.
2)由于孤立的个体只能非理性地判断需要集体行动的事物的积极可能性,而在个体悲观的情况下,个体却只能对集体事物的不可能做出消极的判断。如果拒绝非集体的积极乐观主义,则接受支持个人的悲观抵制主义,因此,集体乐观主义的对象只有在受到非悲观主体制约的情况下才是理性的。在此基础上,我阅读了兰迪教授关于气候变化的讽刺文章,将其称为“小思想家的远大期望”,也就是说,只有当足够多的人相信这不能由他们自己或其他人(比如能源公司的CEO)完成时,对更大目标的远大期望才成为可能。个人的自我否定等于集体的共同肯定。

然而,应该注意的是,这两个例子都提出了为什么以及是否存在乐观主义这样的问题,但它可以从紧急情况的质量中收集,这是由双方共有的,它存在于或出现的威胁感,而不是从愿望不受紧急情况的影响。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Harold G. Neuman's picture

Harold G. Neuman

Saturday, July 30, 2022 -- 11:35 AM

After all the foregoing, and

After all the foregoing, and admitting I have not read most of the comments, I wonder if whether or not optimism is a requirement is merely academic. Moreover, the notion of rationality (reason) does not seem reliant on a reasoning person being, or need be, optimistic about potentials/outcomes of that faculty. One state of being does not appear to require the other. What am I not getting here?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Sunday, July 31, 2022 -- 5:07 AM

You aren't missing much.

You aren't missing much.

If we agree optimism can be object and expectation free, and even abstracted from reality, there are some cases where optimism is rational still.

When reality is set aside, the utility of rationality can be marginal. Yesterday I overheard a young boy ask his mother if it was as hot on Tatooine as in the current day here in the NW ( it was over a hundred degrees at the time.) The optimistic answers in these posts, from the show and in your brain really only matter in that boys conception of a fictional planet.

如果我们同意,我还有希望。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Monday, August 1, 2022 -- 5:49 PM

Is this something on which

Is this something on which you could elaborate? Do you intend to assert that optimistic hopes can only be justified when they are for imaginary objects?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Thursday, August 4, 2022 -- 8:10 PM

工作在前提中。

工作在前提中。如果我们不同意,那么就没有客观的希望,这并不是说一些希望没有对象。乐观就不能这么说了。莫顿,迈克尔和科内尔·韦斯特消除了乐观和希望的歧义,但你没有。我做的事。民间没有。如果我们不能达成一致,那么我们就需要改变我们的营业场所。我不认为这有多大希望。是那个物体吗?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Tuesday, August 2, 2022 -- 12:44 PM

Or is it the case that mental

Or is it the case that mental representations in minds of biological systems which have a greater expected duration than can be measured of their past, i.e. in the youthful, are the only kind for which corresponding objects not existing in the present are likely to exist in the future?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Tuesday, August 2, 2022 -- 7:16 PM

It would not be immodest if a

It would not be immodest if a claim be made that these questions lack aimlessness. For what you've attempted here is a deep phenomenology of the real non-existence of executant objects of optimistic predication. If anything associated with them which contains a claim of being real is bracketed so as to be set aside outside of consideration, the resultant marginal utility of rational choice between merely apparent alternatives, which in your example is between qualitatively identical experiences of warmth caused by identical measures of temperature of two different planets, our own and a fictional one, then only the phenomenon of warmth can be included in analysis, not what the thermometer measures. Permissible therefore would it be for it to be equally hot on both but at different temperatures also, without having to consider which is real or not. But on the remote chance that there is such a planet on which a species exists which is equally hot at a different temperature, and a similar phenomenological exercise is performed by a member of this species about our own planet, of which no knowledge is had but which nevertheless happens to be true, does marginal utility of rational choice become indistinguishable from rational utility of marginal choice, where the range of choices is limited to which planet is warmer? And if the boy's mother was an astrophysicist, would the example be of the same thing?

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Harold G. Neuman's picture

Harold G. Neuman

Sunday, July 31, 2022 -- 3:52 PM

嗨,蒂姆。一段时间。My

嗨,蒂姆。一段时间。我的注意力一直放在其他问题上,这里没有提到。其他的信息来源根本不是无所不知的——有些甚至是彻头彻尾的疯狂。正如所暗示的,如果不是明确的,我的观点认为乐观主义和理性是不重叠的权威。你可以只拥有一个而不拥有另一个。所以,在我看来,这个问题并不是正确的。如果允许的话,我可以回PT。但不是现在。寻找考夫曼、利特尔、梅斯纳等人。 Not advertising the venue here. Do not wish to burn bridges.
Always, warmest regards,
HGN.

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Tim Smith's picture

Tim Smith

Sunday, July 31, 2022 -- 6:09 PM

听起来不错哈罗德。Glad to

听起来不错哈罗德。很高兴看到你再次在这里发帖。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Sunday, July 31, 2022 -- 4:41 PM

Rationality is the quality

理性是由理性所规定或仅由概念所规定的事物所具有的性质。因此,乐观主义是否合理的问题本身是抽象的,几乎是荒谬的。但我们可以探究某些被认为是乐观的行动方针的合理性。例如,在终末期诊断的案例中,概念本身,既有经验的,如血液测试的结果,也有非经验的,如生物尸检对活着的个体来说是不可避免的,它们决定了一个行动过程比另一个行动过程的合理性,而不需要与患者所做决定的内在合理性相关联的经验的帮助。因此,理性是一种客观性,并包含一种不依赖于个人经验的有效性要求。与气候变化的例子类似,只是将从归纳中收集的概念放在一起,就产生了一个合理的行动方案的建议,而无需参考吸入野火烟雾或遭受中暑的相关经验。另一方面,乐观主义的合理性作为一个普遍概念的问题,只有当人们问乐观主义和合理性是否是同一件事时才有意义。如果是这样,参与者诺伊曼的互不重叠的条件将被满足。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines
Daniel's picture

Daniel

Thursday, August 4, 2022 -- 12:20 PM

In the interest of summary,

In the interest of summary, and to assist in providing some exportable form to the meandering forgoing, corrections and notation of deficiencies are welcomed from the forum's coauthors and interested others.

这一页以可选的客观形式为前提,以及某些对象或对象的组合已经是最好的,所以一个人的未来与它/它们有关是一个理论问题,取决于一个人对它/它们的了解。关于明显的和预期的特征的敏感和易怒描述了理论倾向和认识适应之间的对应关系,而不是期望的对象和其可能性的估计。

然而,当可预见对象的范围缩小到只有那些对个人或集体构成毁灭威胁的对象时,一个有利或不利的处置就变成了一个实际问题,其选择是由理论基础决定的。在实践中,即使成功的可能性很小,不利的处置也会被排除在外,因为人们在拒绝其他选择时仍会押注于此。Climate change turns out to be just such a case, and suggestion is made that human rights be expanded to include vegetables, which would have the effect of protecting forested areas which are needed as a component of a solution.

康德在《纯粹理性的准则》(The Canon of Pure Reason)的第二节中也提出了类似的区别,包括可以知道什么(理论性的)、应该做什么(实践性的)以及可以期望什么(理论性的和实践性的)。如果有人在实践意义上值得赞扬地提倡人类在不久的将来在陆地条件下生存,以便可以放弃足以排除替代物的理论依据,那么,看来第三个问题包含了对理论理性领域的实际立法的希望,但只有在不能避免灭绝的危险的情况下。

I've read and agree to abide by the Community Guidelines